Introducing our online Emissions Reduction Pathways tool

We have been working a lot lately on ‘net zero’ emissions strategies and emissions reduction plans for government and corporate clients. Through this work, we have seen the value of giving stakeholders the ability to visualise emissions trajectories and to play around with different abatement opportunities to understand the different pathways to emissions reductions.

Based on this experience, we are pleased to release our new Online Emissions Reduction Pathways tool, which can be viewed here.

The tool allows users to explore different scenarios via an intuitive and attractive interface. It helps distill complex concepts and calculations into a clean and intuitive format. For practitioners, the tool is relatively easy to update via an underlying spreadsheet (provided a carbon inventory and associated emissions reductions opportunities have been calculated).

If you are interested in developing your own version of the tool or talking further about emissions reduction strategies, contact Charlie Knaggs or Christophe Brulliard.

The Seven Steps of Climate-related Scenario Analysis

Planners and decision makers are often required to develop strategies in the face of an uncertain future. Climate change adds an additional (and substantial) layer of uncertainty to the mix.

Scenario analysis is an established method for developing and stress testing management responses under such conditions of deep uncertainty. Effectively a ‘what-if?’ test, each scenario presents a combination of plausible and internally consistent future events to planners and decision makers. A set of scenarios is used to span a range of possible futures that are outside the timespans of day-to-day decision-making.

In June 2017, the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (FSB TCFD) suggested that “organizations should use scenario analysis to assess potential business, strategic, and financial implications of climate-related risks and opportunities…”. The FSB followed this with a Technical Supplement on the use of Scenario Analysis.

Point Advisory have found the FSB’s technical supplement to be useful in application. However, we have also found that some organisations have difficulty in translating the FSB’s guidance into tangible steps. To assist, we have developed the following seven-step approach:

  1. Establish the organization’s context: Scenarios should be relevant to the organisation’s environment, including markets and competition, supply chains, etc. The planning horizons will be important in defining scenarios’ own milestones.
  2. Understand current governance: Scenarios will facilitate decision making; scenario development therefore need to be cognisant of how decisions are made.
  3. Assess climate-related risks and opportunities: This step could be the subject of its own article (or text book). Climate related future scenarios will modify these risks, but it is important to have a solid starting point and understand the risk areas to make sure scenarios have a higher level of resolutions within those areas.
  4. Develop the scenario set: This is the crux of the matter. Based on research and consultation, a set of scenarios can be defined. To ensure they are useful all assumptions should be clearly stated and then reviewed by key internal participants. The resulting scenarios should be plausible, internally consistent, relevant and challenging.
  5. Apply the scenarios: The scenarios are but a tool. Planners and decision makers use them to explore the implications of scenarios on decisions, strategies or objectives. This is the “stress test” and the key question to be asked is: How would existing (or proposed) strategies, decisions or actions perform under each scenario?
  6. Use the results of scenario analysis to influence strategic planning or to improve existing management responses. This is best done by embedding insights from the previous steps into processes, policies and the culture of the organization.
  7. Close the governance loop: Monitor, review, document, disclose and repeat as appropriate.

For further information please contact Christophe Brulliard and Ben Sichlau.

Upcoming Melbourne event: Journey to a net zero world…

Upcoming event: Journey to a net zero world…

Can you imagine a net zero emissions world? What does it look like? And how do we get there by 2050?

To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement commitments and have a chance of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C, we basically need to achieve ‘net zero’ emissions globally by 2050. So it’s not surprising that we’re seeing a huge increase in interest in the net zero concept – from defining emissions reduction pathways through to setting science-based targets and organisational carbon neutral commitments.

But what does net zero really mean? What are our state and local governments doing to reduce their fair share of emissions? How is the Australian private sector taking on the challenge to stay ahead of the game and remain competitive? And what steps can individual organisations take to start the journey to net zero?

Come and join us for a drink, a snack and a lively discussion about these questions. Expect interesting insights from both the public and private sector and some good examples on how the net zero concept can be translated into action.

Who will be there? The following panellists will share with you their insights on their work towards net zero emissions:

What will we talk about? We will create a forum for both government and private sector attendees to discuss the transition to a net zero economy. Our panellists will discuss:

  • Victoria’s legislated net zero target and the Climate Change Act 2017
  • how they are taking on the challenge and putting measures in place to contribute their fair share to reach net zero
  • the main barriers and challenges faced
  • key lessons learnt as they act on their commitments.

We’re expecting an interactive discussion, and will allow plenty of time for networking and continuing the conversation over a glass of wine.

Event details: The event will be held at Point Advisory’s offices in Melbourne’s CBD from 5pm to 7.30pm on Thursday 19 April. Drinks and nibbles provided.

Please click here to visit our Eventbrite site to RSVP.

Towards zero emissions by 2050

Towards zero emissions by 2050

At the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (‘COP21’) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (‘UNFCCC’) held in Paris, the world agreed to a global goal to hold average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to keep warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve the “well below 2°C goal”, the concentration of greenhouse gases (‘GHG’) in the atmosphere need to be kept under control, which means that the world has to operate within a given remaining ‘budget’ of carbon emissions. Currently we have a carbon budget of 850 billion tons of CO2 to have a likely chance (estimated as a 2/3 probability) of staying below 2°C. If we want to stay well below 2°C, we need to do better than that, and do it quickly. In this context, the Paris Agreement highlights the need for Parties to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Australia ratified the Paris Agreement on 10 November 2016. Our Nationally Determined Contribution (‘NDC’), dated August 2015, sets an economy-wide target to reduce GHG emissions by 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. This target has been rated as “insufficient, and with a level of ambition that, if followed by all other countries, would lead to global warming of over 2°C and up to 3°C” by the latest Climate Action Tracker assessment.

However, Australian state and local governments are taking further climate action to contribute their fair share to the world’s path to net zero emissions by 2050. Queensland has been the latest state government to announce their climate agenda with its Queensland Climate Transition Strategy, that includes a commitment for 50% renewable energy by 2030, net zero emissions by 2050, and an interim emissions reductions target of at least 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. This positions Queensland alongside South Australia, Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania in setting targets or aspirational goals of net zero emissions by 2050.

State Key commitments
Victoria
  • Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
  • Requires the government to set five-yearly interim targets for the period 2020 to 2050
  • Reduce Victoria’s emissions by 15-20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020
  • Reduce emissions from government operations by 30 per cent below 2015 levels by 2020
  • Renewable energy generation targets of 25 per cent by 2020 and 40 per cent by 2025
Australian Capital Territory
  • Net zero carbon emissions by 2050
  • Interim emissions reduction targets
  • Renewable energy target of 100% by 2020
South Australia
  • Net zero emissions by 2050
  • Adelaide to be world’s first carbon neutral city
  • Achieve $10 billion in low carbon investment by 2025
  • Improve energy efficiency of government buildings by 30 per cent by 2020
Queensland
  • Net zero emissions by 2050
  • 50% renewable energy by 2030
  • Interim emissions reductions target of at least 30% below 2005 levels by 2030
New South Wales
  • Aspirational objective of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
Tasmania
  • Aspirational long-term target to achieve zero net emissions by 2050

At Point Advisory, we have recently completed work for the ACT government to develop their net zero emissions trajectories at the broad sectoral level (stationary energy, waste and land use). We are also working with the Queensland government on their next demand management and energy efficiency strategy.

Local Governments are also making progress in Australia. Some examples of councils´ emissions reduction commitments are as follows:

Additionally, Melbourne and Sydney are part of C40 Cities, a network of 91 cities across the world committed to addressing climate change by reducing emissions and climate risks, while increasing the health, wellbeing and economic opportunities of their citizens. Together C40 member cities combined community emissions represent 2.4 Gt of CO2-e. During COP23, 25 cities, including Melbourne, pledged to develop climate action plans before the end of 2020 to deliver on their share of emissions reductions required to reach net zero emissions by 2050. New York City and Paris have already delivered on this commitment. Melbourne is on track to develop its climate action plan and has also been recognised as a lead of the C40 Low Carbon Districts network, with Fishermans Bend and Arden Macauley as examples of low-carbon, sustainable, and energy efficient neighbourhoods. Point Advisory is currently finishing developing a net zero carbon strategy for the Fishermans Bend Taskforce, which will inform the next stage of work to refine the climate action plan for the district.

Businesses are also stepping up and leading the way to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy. COP23 witnessed commitments of unprecedented magnitude, such as Microsoft’s pledge to reduce its operational carbon emissions by 75 per cent by 2030, against a 2013 baseline – this has been estimated to avoid 10 million metric tons of carbon per year, which is equivalent to zeroing out the emissions of the City of Rome. Danone also saw its science-based target to become carbon neutral by 2050 getting approved by the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) during the conference, and so did the Singtel Group, becoming the first company in Asia (excluding Japan) to have its carbon reduction targets approved by the SBTi.

Over 630 companies around the world have made more than 1,000 climate-related commitments through the We Mean Business Coalition’s Take Action campaign. This includes commitments such as adopting science-based emissions reduction targets or joining the Low Carbon Technology Partnerships Initiative to achieve emissions reductions that lead to a net zero emissions economy by 2050.

Whilst setting targets does not directly reduce emissions, businesses’ pledges are sending a clear signal to the market that society is ready to embrace net zero and that regulatory uncertainty needs to be reduced to ensure investment stability and smooth economic growth.

Australian businesses are also playing a role. Point Advisory assisted Westpac to develop emissions reduction targets in line with SBTi criteria. Infigen Energy, Origin Energy, Teachers Mutual Bank, Australian Ethical Investment and Investa have also committed to setting science-based targets. Other Australian companies, such as AGL Energy, Energy Australia, Wesfarmers annd Telstra have shown their support to a 2050 carbon emissions reduction target for Australia that is consistent with the Paris Agreement to aim at net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

As climate action plans and emissions reductions targets get approved and communicated, the focus will shift to whether governments and businesses are in fact delivering on those commitments. To this effect, at COP23, countries agreed on the design of the Talanoa Dialogue, a framework to take stock of the collective progress towards net zero emissions of the Parties to the agreement. This will not only provide insight on the actual tons of emissions that have been removed from the atmosphere so far, but also set the scene for governments to up their NDCs under the Paris Agreement kicking off in 2020. The Australian federal government will then have another chance to truly embrace the challenge of decarbonising Australia’s economy, take on a leading role and unlock the significant economic opportunities the Paris Agreement could offer for Australia.

Draft NCOS Buildings & Precincts open for consultation

The Department of Environment and Energy has recently released drafts of two new draft standards for industry consultation: the National Carbon Offset Standard for Buildings and the National Carbon Offset Standard for Precincts. To see the draft standards and provide feedback, click here.

In addition, the Department (along with the NABERS team and the Green Buildings Council of Australia) are hosting a webinar on the draft NCOS for Buildings standard on Friday 16 December from 11.30am to 12.30pm. Those wishing to attend should register through the GBCA Event Calendar.

These voluntary standards will enable new and existing buildings and precincts to gain accreditation to declare carbon neutrality to the NCOS standard, and to use the highly-regarded NCOS trademark as a public statement of the integrity of their claim.

Point Advisory is very pleased to have assisted the Department in the development of these standards. We believe they are an important step in helping to drive the built environment sector towards the significant emissions reductions that we know are possible.

To discuss any aspect of NCOS or carbon neutrality, email Christophe Brulliard.

Report release: EEOB – Transforming the Mid-Tier Sector

Melbourne_cbd_eeob
Point Advisory would like to congratulate Sustainability Victoria on their win in the ‘Best Energy Efficiency Program’ category of the National Energy Efficiency Conference Awards last week for their ‘Energy Efficient Office Buildings’ (EEOB) program. The program demonstrated that energy savings of up to 29% can be achieved across the mid-tier office building sector, via building tuning and cost effective energy efficiency measures.

Point Advisory is proud to have worked with Sustainability Victoria to develop the EEOB – Transforming the Mid-Tier Sector report, released at last week’s conference. The report outlines the energy efficiency-related opportunities and challenges presented by the mid-tier commercial buildings sector. It also highlights to successes of Sustainability Victoria’s EEOB program in addressing the challenges relating to the mid-tier.